The coastal erosion hazard assessment uses a probabilistic approach in determining the potential future shoreline position at 2065 and 2120 taking into account historic erosion trends, storm effects and backshore slope stability as well as the possible effects of sea level rise. The range of values for each of these parameters was determine from a range of sources, including LiDAR survey, aerial photographs, field investigations, beach profile data, numerical modelling and expert engineering judgement. A triangular probability distribution was assumed for each parameter and a monte-carlo technique was used to assess the likelihood of the combined influence of each parameter.
